Draft Ninth Power Plan identifies cost-effective resource portfolio to meet Northwest’s energy needs by 2032
To meet the growing need for energy in the Pacific Northwest by 2032, the region will need to expand its power system by adding a diverse mix of over 11,000 megawatts (MW) of new generation, over 5,000 MW of storage, and over 1,000 average-megawatts (aMW) of energy efficiency, among other resources. That’s according to a proposed cost-effective resource strategy included in the draft of the Council’s Ninth Power Plan, which was released to the public on August 13.
The Council voted unanimously at its August meeting to approve this draft plan for public review and comment, and to begin a hearing process that will take place in September and October in cities and towns in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana as well as virtually.
Major components of the Ninth Plan’s proposed resource strategy for 2027-2032 include:
- Energy efficiency, 1,060 aMW. Recognizing differences in need across the region, the draft Ninth Plan proposes a target of 860 aMW in Oregon and Washington and 200 aMW in Idaho and Montana.
- Renewables, 9,000 MW
- Storage, 5,000 MW
- Natural gas, 2,100 MW
- Demand response, 590 MW
- Voltage regulation, 220 MW
For the year 2032, this portfolio’s fixed cost is estimated to be $2.3 billion, which would be approximately 0.15% of the four-state region’s $1.46 trillion gross domestic product in 2025.
“The Northwest’s power system will rely on a diverse mix of resources in the next 5-10 years,” said Jennifer Light, Director of Power Planning. “No single resource on its own will be able to meet our growing need for energy in the future. Rather, a regional portfolio of cost-effective resources will achieve the right balance of economics, efficiency, reliability, and adequacy for our grid’s power supply.”
“The Northwest Power Act provides all residents of our region with a voice in planning for our energy future,” said Oregon Council Member Margi Hoffmann, Chair of the Power Committee. “We are keenly interested in ideas and recommendations for how to improve our draft proposal. We invite the public to attend an upcoming hearing in-person or online, learn about our proposed plan, and share their thoughts to how to improve the Northwest power system’s economics, reliability, and adequacy.”
Major components of each power plan are a 20-year load forecast as well as a strategy that identifies the cost-effective supply and demand side resources that will meet these energy needs, while ensuring the power system continues to be adequate, efficient, economical, and reliable. The Council officially began working on the Ninth Plan in February 2025, although early-stage preparation and coordination took place during the year prior.
For the past several years, load growth and meeting energy demand have been mounting concerns in the Northwest. Load growth uncertainty is among the top issues the draft Ninth Plan proposes to address, along with extreme weather, risk of resource and transmission availability, and uncertainty around Columbia Basin hydrosystem operations.
In spring 2025, the Council published a 20-year load forecast that projected a growth rate per year for annual energy between 1.8% - 3.1% from 2027-2046; it ranges between 1.9% - 3% for peak demand over those two decades.
According to the forecast, annual energy will grow from 22,000 aMW currently to between 31,000 aMW-44,000 aMW by 2046; peak demand grows from current levels of 35,500 MW (winter) and 33,300 MW (summer) to between 47,000 MW-60,000 MW by 2046. Covering low- and high-end trajectories, the Northwest power system will grow by 50-100% over the next 20 years.
Major drivers of future growth are expected to be data centers in the near term, and the electrification of vehicles, buildings, and industry, as well as economic and population growth over the long term. To account for future uncertainty, Council power planners used a range of five potential future load growth patterns for the Northwest, capturing low- to high-end trajectories. The draft Ninth Plan accounts for all clean energy policies and targets in the region, as well as hydrosystem operations that benefit and protect fish and wildlife, including those in the Council’s 2026 Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Program.
“Our proposal comes at a critical moment as the Northwest confronts and addresses the challenges of rising electricity demand,” said Washington Council Member K.C. Golden, who co-chairs the Resource Adequacy Advisory Committee. “Our draft power plan includes both conservation measures and new energy generation to ensure that power demand will be met under a wide range of uncertainties about future load growth. We also analyzed the potential for future heatwaves, winter storms, and periods of peak demand to ensure that we have adequate power supplies. We have identified a path forward to meet these needs and provide these protections cost-effectively.”
“Faced with forecasted load growth we haven’t seen in decades, the past three years have been an all-hands-on-deck moment for power system planners in the Northwest,” said Idaho Council Member Jeff Allen. “This called for collaboration and teamwork, and our power planners and our regional partners rose to meet the challenge. Our upcoming public hearings and opportunities to provide written feedback will further strengthen our proposed power plan.”
To help ensure the system has sufficient energy at peak demand periods, such as during a heat wave or a winter storm, Council power planners used regional climate model datasets extending to 2050 that inform future temperatures, streamflow patterns, and resource availability.
A major component of the Ninth Plan examined uncertainty around new resource and transmission availability, as well as Columbia Basin hydrosystem operations. The draft plan’s resource strategy seeks to effectively hedge against risks from a constrained building environment, or delays and price hikes in emerging generating technologies, or slower demand-side resource availability.
The Council tested a range of possible operations of the Columbia Basin hydrosystem. Because these operations have varied in past decades, testing sets of operations and ensuring the strategy is robust across the range is another key component of the draft Ninth Plan.
The draft plan proposes standards that will ensure new data centers in the Northwest are built as energy-efficiently as possible. Other tech industry proposals include working with data center companies to increase flexibility in energy consumption, such as using potential demand-response type products or leveraging back-up generation.
The draft Ninth Power Plan was developed through collaboration with over 80 regional partners, including utilities, industries, regulators, state energy offices, technical experts, public interest groups, tribes, universities, and many others.
“To meet this moment, the Council sharpened our analysis and evolved our planning methods from the 2021 Power Plan,” said Montana Council Member Doug Grob. “The Council uses innovative modeling techniques and tools that were informed by advisory committees consisting of many of the top experts in the region. By working collaboratively with utilities, Bonneville Power Administration, and many other regional partners, we’ve achieved a remarkable success story in power system planning in the Northwest over the past several decades.”
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